证券研究报告预计新的补库周期到来将推动出口产业链景气度提升，细分出口赛道龙头有望随着预期改善先于基本面修复，同时，海运费呈现持续回落趋势，出口端成本有望得到进一步优化，推荐标的：晨光股份；建议关注：百亚股份、家联科技、嘉益股份，■行业评鮫及投资建议：地产政策持续催化后周期板块估值修复，疫情防控措施进一步优化推动线下客流及跨区经营活动恢复，维持轻工行业“推荐”评级，组合配置：继续建议以“地产后周期+细分出口龙头修复+成本改善”作为下期配置主线，建议组合：欧派家居、顾家家居、志邦家居、喜临门、晨光股份、百亚股份、太阳纸业、共创草坪、新巨丰。■风险提示：原材料价格波动，地产销售修复不达预期，疫情扰动的不确定性风险，行业竞争加剧，汇率波动，重点关注公司业绩不及预期重点关注公司及叠利预测重点公司2023/02/24EPSPE代码20212022E2023E20212022E2023E603833.SH欧派家居138.464.384.465.3333.5231.0425.98买入002572.SZ索菲亚22.460.131.321.56170.7717.0214.40增持603816.SH顾家家居47.172.652.332.6729.1220.2917.68未评级603008.SH喜临门36.291.451.632.0526.9222.2817.70未评级001323.SZ慕思股份47.371.911.812.1526.1522.00未评级603801.SH志邦家居35.231.621.732.0518.7820.3617.19增持603899.SH54.051.641.541.9039.2235.1028.45买入1999.HK敏华控股8.110.570.640.7415.0112.5910.94未评级003006.SZ百亚股份20.010.530.5733.8331.5934.92未评级002078.SZ太阳纸业12.681.121.031.1610.2612.3510.95未评级603733.SH仙鹤股份30.721.441.101.6928.3427.8218.19未评级002831.SZ裕同科技30.181.091.641.9831.0018.4115.26未评级601968.SH宝钢包装6.920.260.280.3540.0424.8619.93未评级002701.SZ奥瑞金5.300.370.290.3618.9218.1114.75未评级002511.SZ中顺洁柔12.720.450.300.4737.1342.1127.05未评级301193.SZ家联科技38.780.591.562.0453.6824.9019.02未评级001322.SZ箭牌家居21.300.660.680.8831.2624.32未评级603180.SH金牌厨柜42.702.312.432.9016.6717.5714.72增持603208.SH江山欧派71202.45-1.403.1425.7522.67未评级301004.SZ嘉益股份34.580.822.292.6824.9215.0912.88未评级002078.SZ太阳纸业12.681.101.031.1610.4412.3510.95未评级17.650.440.400.5843.7530.42未评级605099.SH共剑草坪25.180.941.181.4737.4221.2617.17未评级资料来源：ind资讯，国海证券研究所注：未评级公司预测数据取自2023年02月25日■1nd一致预期，港股货币单位为港元请务必阅读正文后免黄条款部分2