比亚迪(002594.SZ、1211.HK0光大证券财务报表与盈利预测202020212022E2023E2020202120m2E2023E2024E管业收入156598216,142426,640659,49682B,301总资产201017295,780386333532,988651,766营业成本126251187.998356.566531,847655.789货币资金14.44550.45785,328131,899165,660折旧和摊销1231813.80812.04914,36116,612交易性金鞋资产05.606505050税金及附加2,1543,0357,25311,87116566应收账款4121636.25140.10468.19293.432销售费用5,0566.08214.50627,69937274应收票据00000管理费用4,3215,71013,65224.40130,647其他应收款（合计）1.0511.4112.9864.6165.798研发费用7,4657,99117,49231,65639,758存货313964335552,08578,37796,968财务费用3,7631,7871908811.663其他流动资产16,17517,26919,37421,70223,390投资收益27357-300-300300流动资产合计111,605166,110212,693319,355401,0577,086463220,44935,92353,340其他权益工具1,4202,9142,9142,9142,9146,883451820,19935,67353.060长期股权投资5,4667,9059,90511,90513,905所得税8695512,4844,477固定资产54,5856122179,73996,549111,747净利润6,0143,96717,71531,19646,375在建工程355014,24612,93511,95111,213少数股东损益1,7809221,0001,1141,113无形资产1180417.10525.99534.44542.47342343,04516,71530,0834526266666161EPS元)1.551.055.7410.3315.55其他非流动资产1.05414.09416.19916.19916.199非流动资产合计89,412129,670173,640213,633250,709202020212022E2023E2024E总负债136,563191536264,680381,556456,454经营活动现金流45,39365,46774,95564,92272,441短期借款16.4011020412.18436.81346.152净利润4,2343.04516.71530.08345.262应付账款42,98373,160124,798186,146229,526折旧摊销12,31813,80812,04914,36116,6128,9267,33114,26321,27426,232净营运资金增加3,97226,05924,582预收账款000其他38.1959652150,164其他流动负债2.4853.7157,92512,58215,958投资活动产生现金流-14444-45,404-49,109-52,325-52,300流动负债合计106,431171,304234,133339,366405,824净资本支出.11.51536.517.40.39540.00040.000长期借款14,7458,7448,7448,7448,744长期投资变化5.4667905-2.000-2.000-2.000应付债券88802.0462.0462,0462,046其他资产变化-8,395-16,792-6,71410,325-10,300其他非流动负债6,1148.83219.35731.00039.440资活动现金流-2890716,0639,02533,97413,620非流动负债合计301332023230-54742,19050.630股本变化018300064,454104244121,653151,432195311债务净变化-19.557-17.461-1.00424.6309.338股本2,7282.9112.9112.9112.911无息负债变化23.08072.43474,14892,24665,560公积金29,14765,81665,81665,81665,816净现金流2,0636,081348714657133,761未分配利润24.45726.45642,86571,530114,296归属母公司权益56,87495,070111,479140,144182,910少数股东权益75809,17510,17511,28812,401主要指标202020212022E2023E2024E202020212022E2023E2024E毛利率19.49%13.09%16.49%19.49%2089%销售费用率3239%2.819%3.40%4.209%4.50%EBITDA率16.8%10.3%8.0%8.19%8.9%管理费用率2.769%2.649%3.20%3.70%3.70%EBIT率8.9%3.9%5.19%5.9%6.9%财务费用率2.409%0.83%0.049%0.13%0209%税前净利润率4.49%2.1%4.7%5.4%6.4%研发费用率4.779%3.70%4.10%4.809%480%归母净利润率2.7%1.49%3.9%4.69%5.5%所得税率139%129%13%ROA3.0%1.3%4.69%5.9%71%ROE(薄)3.2%15.0%21.5%24.79%202020212022E2023E20246经营性ROIC10.1%7.0%14.49%18.3%21.0%每股红利0.150.110.490.86127每股经营现金流16.6422.4925.7522.3024.88202020212022E2023E2024E每股净资产20.8532.6638.2948.1462.83资产负债率68%65%6%729%每股销售收入57.4074.25146.55226.54284.53流动比率1.050.970.910.940.99速动比率0.750.720.690.710.75估值指标202020212022E2023E归母权益/有息债务1.112.803382.432.731702524626有形资产/有息债务3.558.0610.798.579.03PB(A股)12.78.16.95.54.2EV/EBITDA30.435.923.915.711.5资料来源：WMnd,光大证券研究所调股息率0.1%0.09%0.2%0.3%0.5%敬请参阅最后一页特别声明-2证券研究报告