中国电建(601669.SH)光大证券202020212022E2023E2024E20202023E2024E401,181448,325507,869575,831647,433886543963,97710695311185,7301303,615营业成本344,083389566439,159499.111561,7537938290.005101,1979,4151190912.58113.95315,623交易性金融资产82206206206206税金及附加22561,8212,0632,3392,63056,07272,62582,27193,280104,8791,0781,3721,5541,7621,9812,8772,1432,4282,7533,095管理费用11,47913,28615,05017,06419,18640,51143,50449,27555,86162,800研发费用16,08818,22520,664存货122,680125,762141815161,2381815239,5737,83612,90413,79015,149其他流动资产16,41217,76719,64921,96324,216651684718754动资产合计416266424453478,806542,320608,841162281659218,62220,65123,0237,28512,56112,56112,56112,56116,20716,74918,77920,80823,180长期服权投资24,04137,3393733937,33937339所得税3,4713,2913,6904,0894,555固定资产101,485109,055121,706138,772158,55312,7361345815,08916,72018,626在建工程13,19512,90335,82052,99765,8684,8265,2125,6296,079无形资产201,523228,035229,742236,389242,9409,87811091125475303643643643640.520560.640.73其他非流动资产71,15181,61984.59684,59684,596470,278590,T2520202021202E2023E2024E662,634T23,845815,834917,0221018,1734,8683412740,50815,6375,05923,82057,37886,387净利润7,9878,6品29,87811,09112,547121,575137,257154,731175,854197925折旧销9,41511,90912,58113,95315,6239,51110,14711,43913.00114.632净营运资金增加44,748-8,624-10,0123,8641982179255288327368其他703093,706324215,21910,456其他流动负债27,25730,05633,49735,76639,360-58,129464275727659,28259246381,709408,891483498566,967650,255净资本支出-55,00060,00060,000240,452262,380277380292,380307380长期投资变化24,04137,339000应付债券16,25322,56122,56122,56122,561其他资产变化-23,794-50,074-2,276718754其他非流动负债14,87218,05320,43523,15326,0173036419,73121,71535,77829,830280925314954332336350,055367.919服本变化00-1532,0800223,909240,132258,69826870928541责务净变化12,75624,31133,76148,55844,008服本15,29915,29915,14617,22617,226无息负债变化30,12136,90058,22752,63057,143公积金30,34132,10633,24732,27633,53013489-11,602930710,52311,192未分配利润48,22953,82661,19369,46678,865归属母公司权益118,026124,995133,349142,731153,385105,883115,137120,349125,978132,056202020212022E2023E2024E20202021202mE2023E2024E毛利率14.2%13.1%135%13.3%132%0.27%0.31%0.31%0.31%031%EBITDA率10.09%89%8.9%85%管理费用率286%296%296%2.96%2.96%EBT率7.%6.1%6.4%62%6.1%财务费用率239%175%254%2.39%234%4.0%3.7%3.7%3.6%3.6%研发费用率381%3.59%35%3.59%3.59%2.0%1.9%19%1.9%所得税率21%209%20%ROA1.4%14%ROE (6.8%6.9%7.4%7.8%202020212022E2023E5.7%5.0%5.4%5.4%每服红利0.090.100.110.110.12每服经营现金流1.022.96198236202020212023E2024E7.718.178808.298.90资产负债率75%75%7%77%78%2622293033.5333.4337581.091.040.990.960.94速动比率0.770.730.6720202022022E归母权益有息债务0.400390.370350.34PE1514121211有形资产/有息债务228226234233235PB0.90.90.90.9EV/EBITDA14.916.014.915.014.5资料来源：WMnd,光大证券研究所测服息率12%1.3%15%1.49%16%敬请参阅最后一页特别声明证券研究报告