安信证券ESSENCE SECURITIES财务报表预测和估值教据汇总2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E2021A2023E2024E2025E19,084.418,154.919,443.921,271.623,462.6减：营业成本6,072.57,050.86,429.97,354.78,327.74.1%7.1%10.3%营业税费148.0143.2157.7187.0营业利润增长率8.8%-51.5%75.7%17.5%17.6销售费用2.127.01,828.72,080.22,263.12.456.536.66273.4%18.616.6管理费用899.41,004.91,280.61,189.91,385.5EBITDA增长率10.6-24.1%17.4%10.510.5%80.454.651.570.069.910.7%-27.3%20.611.7%1,506.41,312.91,402.71,407.31,374.3NOPLAT增长伞15.1%-47.0%58.415.3%资产减值损失-2.7-14.9-34.4-44.928.3%13.6-14.3%7.7%163.6-1.836.3-379.0-363.0368.3净资产增长率10.8%-6.5%8.3%9.2%3,105.73,163.32,358.52,875.82,799.27,416.23,599.56.323.97,428.58.737.974.1112.065.984.087.3毛利单68.2%61.2%66.9%65.4%64.5%7,490.33,711.56,389.77,512.58,825.138.9%19.8%32.5%34.9%37.2%减：所得税1,373.2794.81,333.01,517.71.837.923.4%9.3%15.16.2%17.2%4,471.11,680.42,913.33,453.74,025.5EBITDA/营业枚入74.8%59.7%65.466.1%66.2%68.3%52.2%58.8%60.0%60.7%2021A2024E2025E国定资产周转天数333361342291245130.954.4141,526.833,003.143.056.354.175.2流动营业资本周转天数-3.120-3,211-3,042交易性金融资产35,637.045,732.245,338.744,81.345,350.7流功资产周转天数4,8235,9524.6423.3373,259946.01,108.6791.21,345.61,089.3应收怅款周转天数16201838.630.437.341.044.70000预付怅款93.589.876.5114.4101.6总资产周转天数7,8909,3747,8026.1805,8413.10.111.29.60.2投资资本周转天数-3.021-3.812-3.514-3,079-2,931118,560.9125,555.2108,167.6117,427.9117,050.3可供出售金融资产ROE10.8%4.2%8.8%10.2%长期股权投资6.574.37,630.97.630.97,630.97,630.90A1.3%1.4%1.61.8%投资性房地产2,326.22,305.12,305.12.305.12.305.1ROIC5.2%-2.1%-3.0%-4.0%-4.2%国定资产17,290.619,092.717,839.716,586.715,333.71,480.7235.7235.7235.7235.711.1%10.1%10.7%10.10.5%无形资产154.5180.4148.6116.885.04.7%5.5%5.9%其他非流功资产128.780.3128,615.0126.096.1128.134.5127,934.70.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%456,931.1488,585.1354,243.6376,030.8385,366.87.9%7.2%7.2%5.949,423.849,395.5四费/营业收入24.1%23.1%24.8%23.2%22.5%应付怅款4,449.54,613.74,772.05,487.16,005.2851.5354.3655.4567.184.7%86.1%82.0%81.7%80.5%其他流动负债240,844.6263.096.9230,508.6244,866.6246.472.4553.4%456.7%445.4%412.0%38.622.042.435.40.970.990.800.820.86其他非流动负债53,150.360,106.954,973.156,076.857,052.20.970.990.800.820.86386,998.9420,499.8290,608.0307,085.8310,096.98.667.228.159.0810.3728,353.928.198.830,342.332,883.435,845.1股本8,920.08,830.78,830.78,830.78,830.7DPS(元)0.150.100.0823,399.722,409.224,462.627,230.930,594.030.0%0.0%29.5%19.8%16.5%69,932.268.085.463,635.668,945.075,269.93.7%0.0%2.4%1.9%2021A2023E2024E2025E2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E6.117.12,916.72,913.33,453.74,025.5EPS(元)0.510.190.330.390.461,248.11,366.61,284.81,284.81,284.8BVPS(元)4.714.523.774.084.46资产减值准备2.785.6PE(X)8.221.712.510.69.1-163.61,836.3-379.0-363.0368.3P8000.90.91.11.00.91,602.71,431.71.402.71,407.31,374.3P/FCF0.51.2-0.31.84.5-3.105.9-3.155.5-2,354.7-2,872.0-2,月4.1P/s1.92.01.91.71.61,646.11,236.32,143.52,541.12,961.8EV/EB1TDA-13.1-19.9-13.5-13.4-12.670,080.139,435.7-27,061.010,238.73,500.5CAGR(%)0.7%33.8%-1.4%0.7%33.8%45,212.120,065.9-22,050.415,份0.610,721.1PEG-12.20.6-15.70.3-31,063.7-1,339.122,053.1-7,147.82,907.8R01C/WA0C-1.2-0.5-0.9-1.0-108,526.4,798.6-8,818.041,510.4-2,510.0REP0.9-2.2-1.4-1.1-1.0本报告版权属于安信证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。