公司点评报告SOOCHOW SECURITIES保利发展三大财务预测表2022A2023E2024E2025E利润表（百万元）2022A2023E2024E2025E1300,4011430,46015203601.662.750誉业总收入281.108318.476350.897380.688货币资金及交易性金融资产176.687215.063249.99%27.009营业成含金融类)219,228248316267.138289361经营性应收款项26,61132,85642,71749.945税金及附加13.12115.44619.05420367存货87,893925.5259724211,043,848销售费用7,530828010,279合同资产273422403471管理费用47446,29864326,852其他流动资产218.937256594254.822291.4781.23815921.6501.847170.064183489198522212,748财务费用55236.1166,780长期股权投资106250111,305119412125,994加其他收益239239281295因定资产及使用权资产1538119.14422.09325.423投资净收益4.2015.09%5411在建工程571525478439公允价值变动-14200无形资产342310280减值损失405-255-20589资产处置收益113%123124长期特摊费用37029022016034.69338.04746.06850828其他非流动资产47.05551.8075592860364营业外净收支6076076076071,470.4641.6139491.7188831875,4983530138.65446.676流动负债842.280928.6099723301.065.022减所得税12,13612,859短期借软及一年内到期的非流动负债81,14589,63998.934108,14027,011293773454038576经营性应付款项163598179.275188.694226.883减少数股东损益11.05311.959合同负债412,019427,10345146318.34720.5642348726.618其他流动负债185,519232.591233239249.,660非流动负债305.992341,617412417每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元）1531.962.22242.482258351272,632287,628应付愤券57,71675423113.4033893347.43052278租赁负债5,0807,0671046444.90453.66858401其他非流动负债714846923负债合计1.148.2731270.22613495631.477440毛利率%)21.9922.0323.8723.99归属，母公司股东权益1%264208983223.5272403066536.466.696.99125927134740145,793157,752322.192343723369320398.058收入增长%-13713.2910.188.491470.4641.613.9491.718.8831875.498归母净利润增长率%-33.0112.0814.2213332022A2023E2024E2025E2022A2023E2024E2025E经营活动现金流7,42224,82025,11118524每股净资产元15.6416.7117.921932投资活动现金流637-13,602-15660-14211最新发行在外股份（百万股）11,97011,9701197011970筹资活动现金流3.01527,15725,48322.699R0IC%)3.903.994.45现金净增加额5,18238,37634,93427,013R0E-摊薄%9.359.8410.5111.08折旧摊销22985,9716,2386,12478.0978.7078.5178.78资本开支-106-3738-29373323PE(现价&最新股本摊薄)9.408.397.346.48营运资本变动-21,751-14,250-20,79032.091P/B(现价)0.920.860.800.75数据来源：Wd,东吴证券研院所，全文如无特殊注明，相关数据的货币单位均为人民币，预测均为东吴证券研究所预测。东吴证券研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分