中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES公司点评单位：百万元单位：百万元会计年度20222023E2024E2025E20222023E2024E2025E9441.5031.4761.8497.7389,36711,30813.57259106,8487,8169.31511,1741,3101,7872.1752.56543566881预付账款157159189214销售费用263441存货2.0552.5773.2083,840管理费用124150170204合同资产0000研发费用104173204231其他流动资产2.4982,5752.9503,307财务费用68107121147流动资产合计6.9698.60910.00711,786信用减值损失-5-10-98其他长期投资000-10-16-15-14864786827826公允价值变动收益3410162.8463.1373.3443,557140210212187在建工程1,1501,4191,8002,282其他收益101787886无形资产7738078649518011.3101.6821.972其他非流动资产662669671675营业外收入23非流动资产合计6.2956,8187,5078,291营业外支出91013,26415,42717,51420,0777941,3051.6751.966短期借款1.7712.6533,1213,860所得税79130221246应付票据8391,0841,3271.5017151,1751,4541,720应付账款1.1821,1461.4021,7561-22-2903310157101,1671,4761,749合同负债556090101NOPLAT7761,2721.5591.849其他应付款101091.011.652.092.48一年内到期的非流动负00其他流动负债219283302318流动负债合计4.0745.2686.2617.55920222023E2024E2025E长期借款00应付债券1,8641,8641,8641,864营业收入增长率28.6%21.1%20.7%20.0%其他非流动负债414414414414BIT增长率-26.3%63.9%27.2%17.6%非流动负债合计2.2782.2782.2782,278归母公司净利涧增长率-30.1%64.4%26.4%18.5%6,3527,5468,5399,837归属母公同所有者权益6.8808.95710.252毛利率11.5%17.6%17.7%少数胶东权益324018-11净利率9.2%12.5%12.9%12.7%6.9127,8818.97510,240ROE10.3%14.816.4%17.1%13,26415,42717,51420,077ROIC10.3%13.7%15.2%15.3%单位：百万元资产负债率47.9%48.9%48.8%49.0%20222023E2024E2025E债务权益比58.6%62.660.2%59.9%727589391,336流动比率1.71.61.61.6现金收益1,1451,7282,0622,387速动比率1.21.11.11.1存货影响-130-522-631-632经营性应收影响-179-465-406总资产周转率0.60.60.60.7经管性应付影响605244477532应收账款周转天数59606363其他影响-1,370-226-563-548应付账款周转天数51544951-651-755-952-1,100存货周转天数105107112114-1.726-1.039-1,132-1.301-3277-41每胶收益1.011.652.092.48其他长期资产变化1.1072072212000.101.071.331.89638556-141379.7411.1112.6914.52借款增か加1.169467739-271-488-601-707P/E26.716.212.810.80000P/B2.82.42.11.8其他影响-260162120105EV/EBI TDA21.214.011.49.9来源：Wind、中泰证泰研究所-2-请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分