珠江中酒(002461)2022年年报点评2022A2023E2024E2025E2022A2023E2024E2025E49.2853.7757.5061.196.067.498.419.26营业成本28.3729.9531.3733.002.821.691.831.89营业税金及册加4.394.925.255.57-2.26-1.53.1.45-1.60销售货用7.388.018.579.24-0.160.000.000.003.403.683.974.19经营营运黄本变动0.87-7.24-0.42-0.36-226-1.53-1.45其他-1.420.82-0.13-0.14-0.160.000.000.005.921.238.249.060.020.000.000.00-5.47-3.00-3.00-2.000.060.000.000.00其他0.860.000.000.00其他经营损益0.000.000.000.00-4.61-3.00-3.00-2.007.088.729.8010.79短期借款0.98-2.42-2.50-1.50-0.020.010.000.01长期借款-5.000.000.000.007.068.739.8010.800.000.000.000.00所得税1.011.241.391.53支付股利-2.66-2.62-3.616.067.498.419.264.41-3.541.451.600.070.160.170.17-2.27-8.58-3.515.987.338.249.10-0.96-10.340.983.552022A2023E2024E2025E2022A2023E2024E2025E67.1356.7957.7761.32成长能力0.470.860.900.95销售收入增长率8.60%9.10%6.95%6.42%存货18.0318.7019.6220.75-2.56%23.22%12.41%10.08%3.463.513.553.59-3.47%23.73%12.21%10.16%0.000.000.000.00田TDA增长率-254%16.24%14.70%8.82%0.180.180.180.18固定资产和在建工程30.9732.6834.2434.7442.44%44.29%45.45%46.08%无形资产和开发支出13.7113.3212.9312.5417.27%18.91%19.28%19.34%其他非流动黄产5.515.515.515.51净刹率12.29%13.94%14.62%15.14%139.46131.54134.70139.58ROE6.26%7.38%7.88%8.24%短期借款9.927.505.003.50ROA4.34%5.70%6.24%6.64%7.378.318.528.99ROIC9.34%12.33%12.89%13.71%长期借款0.000.000.000.0015.50%16.51%17.71%18.11%其他负债25.4914.2014.4514.70负债合计42.7730.0127.9727.190.360.400.430.4522.1322.1322.1322.131.781.881.882.0145.0545.0545.0545.05应：账款周转率58.6389.2558.9165.9928.9733.6738.7144.19存货周转率1.611.621.611.6196.18100.85105.88111.37112.23%少数股东权益0.520.680.851.0296.69101.53106.73112.3930.67%22.82%20.76%19.48%139.46131.54134.70139.5823.18%24.99%17.88%12.87%流动比率2.693.934.484.952022A2023E2024E2025E速动比率2.153.013.403.76EBITDA7.648.8810.1811.08股利支付率44.40%35.82%38.90%39.66%E35.0428.6025.4423.05PB2172.061.961.860.270.330.370.41PS4.253.903.653.434.374.594.825.08EV/EBITDA19.4317.0414.5212.88每股经营现金0.270.060.370.411.27%1.25%1.53%1.72%0.120.120.140.16请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分