中泰证券ZHONGTAI SECURITIES公司点评盈利预测与估值资产负债表单位：百万元利润表单位：百万元20212022E2023E2024E会计年度20212022E2023E2024E货币资金2.8467,21010,78314,559营业收入15,39920.80226.14230,743000营业成本13,59417.58421,95925,8242082733594135686103121预付账款22354452销售费用5516037588617968761.1631,320317354418492合同资产000404416523553其他流动资产1.6362,5872.9373.267-261-298-216-239流动资产合计5.50710,98215,28719,611信用减值损失55270270270270-12-191010510510510510101.9642,7534,0575,12216242611在建工程9629629639623232323无形瓷产3322992782647392,0872,63.155其他非流动资产5.1225,1325,1395,147营业外收入303131非流动资产合计7.8908,85610.14511.305营业外支出1111111资产合计13,39719,83725,43230,9167582.1072.6603,175097226335所得税90252318379应付票据4.9266,4558,2369,7046681.8553422,796应付账款2,1325,2756,6547,9021013161311515093归属母公司净利润6641.8452,3292,780合同负债484374471553NOPLAT4381.5932,1522,585478478478478EPS(按最新股本摊)1.163.214.054.84一年内到期的非流动负66b其他流动负债212237273311主要财务比率流动负债合计8,25113,03816.49319,382会计年度20212022E2023E2024E00成长能力000019.3%35.1%25.7%17.6%其他非流动负债166166166EBIT增长率-22.8%263.9%35.1%20.1%非流动负债合计166166166166归母公司净利润增长率10.9%177.9%26.2%19.4%负债合计8,41713,20416,65919,548归属母公司所有者权益4.9756,6188.74511,323毛利率11.7%15.5%16.0%16.0%51528444.3%8.9%9.0%9.1%所有者权益合计4.9806,6338,77311,367ROE13.3%27.8%26.5%24.5%负债和股东权益13.39719,83725,43230,916ROIC-30.1%-313.4%162.0%72.9%偿债能力现金流量表单位：百万元62.8%66.6%65.5%63.2%会计年度20212022E2023E2024E3.5%4.0%4.5%4.5%经营活动现金流2,0946,0895,2165.439流动比率0.70.80.91.06331,8062.4583,027速动比率0.60.80.90.9-301-81-287-157营运能力经营性应收影响-10-60-84-49总资产周转率1.11.01.01.0经营性应付影响1,6134.7753,1932,660应收账款周转天数54g158-351-64-42应付账款周转天数47769810-2.024-1.917-1.787-1,810存货周转天数17177资本支出-488-1,205-1.614-1,622股权投资-720001.163.214.054.84其他长期资产变化-1.464-712-173-1883.6410.609.089.461.798192144146每股净贵产8.6611.5215.2219.70借款增加697129109估值比率股利及利息支付-13-559-714-853P/E221715股东融资1,828000P/B8654其他影响-23654729890EV/EBITDA578204151123请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分