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2023-05-06-西南证券-泸州老窖-22年圆满收官，23年再攀高峰

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2023-05-06-西南证券-泸州老窖-22年圆满收官，23年再攀高峰
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泸州老客(000568)2022年报及2023年一季报，点评2022A2023E2024E2025E2022A2023E2024E2025E251.24306.64368.84436.93104.11131.16162.00196.37营业成本33.7038.6243.9549.43折旧与摊销6.297.818.298.78营业税金及册加35.2442.8651.6161.12-2.86-5.88-9.78-14.19销售货用34.4944.4653.4863.350.000.000.000.0011.6213.1915.1217.04经营营运黄本变动-26.5533.5118.0027.85-286-9.78-14.19其他1.64-1.16-1.12-1.140.000.000.000.0082.63165.44177.39217.681.051.191.191.193.28-10.50-10.80-11.00-0.12-0.03-0.07-0.05-15.461.161.121.14其他经营损益0.000.000.000.00-18.74-9.34-9.68-9.86138.47174.55215.56261.310.000.000.000.000.08-0.03-0.03-0.03长期借款31.800.000.000.00138.55174.52215.53261.2810.520.000.000.00所得税34.4443.3653.5364.91支付股利47.74-51.83-65.30-80.65104.11131.16162.00196.37-15.361.769.7814.190.450.570.700.85-20.78-50.07-55.52-66.46103.65130.59161.30195.5243.26106.04112.19141.352022A2023E2024E2025E2022A2023E2024E2025E177.58283.61395.80537.15成长能力33.5333.4343.9051.46销售枚入增长率21.71%22.05%20.29%18.46%存货98.41112.80128.36144.3530.75%26.06%23.49%21.22%26.0112.5312.9313.3231.16%25.99%23.51%21.22%26.6826.6826.6826.68田TDA增长率29.88%24.37%21.30%19.54%0.390.390.390.39固定资产和在建工程96.62102.05107.07111.7086.59%87.40%88.08%88.69%无形资产和开发支出30.8328.1025.5923.1817.21%16.88%15.95%15.15%其他非流动黄产23.8223.8223.8123.81净刹率41.44%42.77%43.92%44.94%513.85623.40764.53932.05ROE30.33%31.28%31.39%31.08%短期借款0.000.000.000.00ROA20.26%21.04%21.19%21.07%64.68123.47165.22214.76ROIC58.97%70.75%95.55%125.63%长期借款31.8031.8031.8031.8056.48%57.55%58.04%58.57%其他负债74.0948.8251.5053.75负债合计170.57204.09248.51300.310.530.540.530.52股本14.7214.7214.7214.722.973.343.784.2648.0048.0048.0048.00应：账款周转率6565.365277.345612.295443.08282.44361.21457.21572.08存货周转率0.390.370.360.36342.08417.54513.54628.41103.14%少数股东权益1.211.782.483.33343.29419.32516.02631.7433.19%32.74%32.51%32.22%513.85623.40764.53932.05带息债务总负债36.21%30.26%24.85%20.56%流动比率3.153.163.153.162022A2023E2024E2025E速动比率2.232.352.452.55EBITDA141.90176.48214.07255.90股利支付率46.06%39.69%40.48%41.25%E32.1325.5020.6517.03PB9.707.946.455.277.048.8710.9613.28PS13.2510.869.037.6223.3228.4935.0642.92EV/EBITDA22.4117.4113.8311.02每股经营现金5.6111.2412.0514.791.43%1.56%1.96%2.42%3.243.524.445.48请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分