德邦证券公司点评顺鑫农业(000860.SZ)财务报表分析和预测20222023E2024E2025E20222023E2024E2025E每股指标（元）营业总收入11,67814,11617,01519,7780.910.911.181.48营业成本7,9729,46011,23713,010每股净资产9.5410.3311.3012.51毛利率%31.7%33.0%34.0%34.2%每股经营现金流1.950.370.432.74营业税金及附加1,3631,4521,7532,037每股股利0.030.120.200.27营业税金率%11.7%10.3%10.3%10.3%价值评估（倍）1,0249881,1911,385P/E37.9029.3823.388.8%7.0%7.0%7.0%P/B3.133.343.052.768598741,0481,214P/S2.191.811.511.30管理货用率%7.4%6.2%6.2%6.1%EV/EBITDA160.7415.3213.1810.56研发费用332834400.1%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%星利能力指标(%)EBIT2091,3441,6191,945毛利率31.7%33.0%34.0%34.2%160360350350净利润率-5.8%4.8%5.1%5.5%1.4%26%2.1%1.8%-9.5%8.8%10.4%11.8%资产减值损失-640757575-3.3%3.2%4.2%5.1%2-2.8%6.0%7.5%8.8%营业利润-3741,0341,3321,672표利增长(%)营业外收支-6-6-6-21.5%20.9%20.5%16.2%3771,0271,3251,665-128.7%743.9%20.5%20.1%EBITDA1261,6031,8812,210-758.1%200.4%29.0%25.7%所得税312308398500偿债能力指标有效所得税率%827%30.0%30.0%30.0%资产负债率65.0%63.8%58.6%56.1%少数股东损益-1670流动比率1.51.61.71.8归属母公司所有者净利润6736768721,096速动比率0.91.00.91.00.80.90.80.920222023E2024E2025E8,5678,9847,5418,3110.71.01.01.0168232280325存货周转天数263.7250.0240.0220.0存货5,7606,5547,3147,7670.60.70.80.9其它流动资产6906997207403.84.96.27.8流动资产合计15,18416,47015,85417,14300003,0942,9062,7422,528在建工程10813014315320222023E2024E2025E无形资产682662642622净利润6736768721,096非流动资产合计5,0714,8614,6594,404少数股东损益-165670资产总计20,25621,33120,51421,547非现金支出9771843373392,4952,7952,2952,095243355351353应付票据及应付寒款1,6371,425308356营运资金变动9191,534-1,29717450000经营活动现金流1,4502763192,031其它流动负债6,1625,7706,4937,212-144-9847流动负债合计10,3459,9919,0969,663ら322,3102,6102,4101,910其他4其它长期负债5161,016516516授资活动现金流-1604312非流动负债合计2,8263,6262,9262,426-1451,187-1,200-700负债总计13,17013,61612,02212,0890000实收资本742742742742其他277450-500-5507,0787,6648,3859,281422737-1,700-1,250751106177现金净流量868418-1,443770负债和所有者权益合计20,25621,33120,51421,547备注：表中计算估值指标的收盘价日期为05月12日请务必阅读正文之后的信息被露和法律声明