中国银河证券研究院CHINA GALAXY SECURITIES一、预测更新与上期回顾表1：2023年06月02日预测更新分类实际值预测值年度1月2月3月4月5月6月Q1Q32023年美国10年期国債收益率3.523.923.483.443.643.503.483.503.302.902.90中国10年期国债收益率2.902.902.852.782.682.602.852.602.502.72汇率美元指数102.6105.0102.1101.7104.2104.6102.1104.6101.398.198.16.876.946.766.937.107.126.767.126.996.856.852.11.00.80.10.20.11.30.10.10.4通胀率0.8-1.4-2.4-3.6-4.6-4.4-1.64.2-14-2.36.75.85.1535.45.05.95.04.96.16.1货币12.612.912.712.412.312.312.812.312.112.2社会融资存量：同比9.49.910.010.09.99.49.79.49.59.7社会融资规模新增（万亿元）5.993.155.381.222.724.0014.57.947.004.7034.174.901.813.890.721.552.9010.605.174.503.2023.47出口（美元值）：当月同比-10.514.8-3.2-5.50.63.9-0.9-1.4进出口进口（美元值）：当月同比-21.44.2-1.4-7.9-11.4-8.9-7.1-10.8-3.8-7.8贸易差额（亿美元）：当月值10011688829029401000204728423050248010411制造业PM:%50.152.651.948.848.6工业增加值：当月同比2.43.95.64.23.83.04.5434.74.13.510.611.80.95.89.64.88.07.05.55.14.74.44.35.14.33.53.9经济3.9制造业授资8.17.0645.65.37.05.3323.83.8房地产开发授资-57-5.8-62-6.869-5.86.9-7.512.28.8858.07.88.87.86.56.06.0实际GDP同比4.5GDP6.35.15名义GDP同比5.58.27.7827.3表2：2023年04月26日预测（来潭：4月26日报告《始于足下一实际值预测值年度1月2月3月4月5月6月Q102Q42023年3.523.923.483.503.603.403.483.403202.802.80利率中国10年期国债收蓝率2.902.902.852.892.752.702.852.702.802.902.90美元指数102.6105.0102.1101.9100.51002102.1100.298.897.197.1SDCNY即期6.876.946.766.856.806.766.826.756.706.70CP:当月同比2.11.00.80.50.91.30.812通胀率0.8-1.4-2.4-2.9-3.0-2.8-1.6-2.9-0.60.16.75.85.15.6545.45.06.46412.612.912.712.812.712.712.812.712.512.312.3货币社会融资存量：同比9.49.910.09.89.79.69.79.69.69.89.8社会融资规模新增（万亿元）5.993.155.281.302.704.3013.148.307.004.7033.144.931.823.950.701.802.909.915.404.5023.01-10.514.86.5-5.4-550.5-1.9-4.52.4-1.0进出口进口（美元值）：当月同比-21.44.2-1.43.20.91.9-7.12.0-2.41.9-1.4贸易差额（亿美元）：当月值100116888260060075020471950241024008807制造业PM:%50.152.651.951.250.849.8、工业增加值：当月同比2.43.96.24.85.94.54.63.510.624.315.53.95.813.78.611.35.55.1经济5.34.94.64.64.54.04.08.1107.16.4525.24.74.7房地产开发投资-5.8-5.34.5-3.4-5.8-2.00.30.312.28.89.48.3728.87.26.25.35.3实际GDP同比4.57.86.06.26.1GDP名义GDP阿比559.17.37.27.2请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免黄声明。2