上海证券附表1：2023年5月中国经济中长期前景P0LL(中位数)3Q1QAvg.Avg.Avg.2023202320232024202320242025GDP YOY%7.5%5.0%5.4%4.4%5.5%4.9%4.6%Previous survey7.7%5.0%5.5%4.7%5.5%4.9%4.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.2%n/an/an/aPrevious survey1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%n/an/an/aCPI YOY%0.2%0.6%1.2%2.1%1.2%2.2%2.0%Previous survey0.7%1.3%2.1%2.4%1.7%2.3%2.2%PPI YOY%-4.1%-2.2%-1.6%-1.0%-2.1%1.0%1.0%Previous survey3.1%-1.1%0.2%1.2%-1.4%1.3%2.1%IP YOY%4.9%4.5%5.1%4.6%4.7%4.8%4.3%Previous survey5.8%4.8%5.5%4.4%5.1%4.8%4.2%FAI YOY%4.1%4.6%5.2%5.0%5.0%5.2%4.6%Previous survey5.0%5.0%5.2%4.5%5.3%5.0%3.8%M2 YOY%11.6%11.5%11.0%10.2%11.0%9.6%8.0%Previous survey12.2%12.0%11.8%10.7%11.0%9.1%8.0%Export Trade YOY%-4.6%0.4%-2.0%-1.3%2.4%2.8%Previous survey1.0%-1.1%4.2%-0.1%0.7%2.5%3.0%Import Trade YOY%-5.3%-2.8%2.0%2.0%-1.4%3.1%2.5%Previous survey-4.0%-0.2%3.3%2.4%0.0%3.2%1.0%Retail Sales YOY%11.3%6.3%10.5%6.5%9.3%6.7%5.0%Previous survey11.9%7.8%11.9%7.0%9.2%7.3%5.0%Unemployment rate4.2%4.1%4.1%n/a4.1%4.0%4.0%Previous survey4.2%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.0%3.9%Surveyed unemployment5.2%5.2%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.0%5.0%Previous survey5.2%5.2%5.1%4.9%5.2%5.1%5.0%Current Acct.GDP1.1%1.4%1.0%1.0%1.5%1.2%0.9%Previous survey1.1%1.5%0.8%0.6%1.5%1.1%0.9%Budget as a %GDPn/an/an/an/a-5.0%-4.6%-3.0%Previous surveyn/an/an/an/a-4.8%-4.3%3.0%资料来源：彭博，上海证券研究所请务必阅读尾页重要声明2